SOURCE: AFI
The Center for International Strategic Studies Sindh (CISSS), a Karachi-based think tank allegedly backed by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), has released a report claiming that India’s rapidly expanding nuclear weapons program poses a significant threat to regional stability and global security, including to the United States.
The report specifically highlights India’s Agni-V intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) with a range of over 8,000 km, the under-development Agni-VI with an estimated range of 12,000 km, and the K-5 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) with a range of 8,000 km. This statement comes in the wake of a think tank report suggesting that Pakistan is developing its own ICBM capable of reaching the United States, intensifying concerns about a potential nuclear arms race in South Asia.
According to CISSSIndia’s nuclear program is driven by an escalatory “Hindutva ideology” that seeks to project global power, threatening not only Pakistan and China but also distant capitals like Washington, D.C.. The CISSS report emphasizes three key components of India’s nuclear arsenal:
- Agni-V ICBM: The Agni-V, with a range of 5,000–8,000 km, is a three-stage, solid-fuel, road-mobile missile capable of delivering a 1.5-tonne nuclear payload. Successfully tested multiple times since 2012, with a notable MIRV (Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle) test in March 2024, the Agni-V can reach all of China and parts of Europe, raising concerns about its strategic intent beyond regional deterrence.
- Agni-VI ICBM: The Agni-VI, still in development, is projected to have a range of 9,000–12,000 km, potentially covering the entire United States. It is designed to carry up to 10 MIRV warheads, enhancing India’s second-strike capability. The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) has completed design work and is in the hardware realization phase, though the project awaits formal approval from India’s Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS).
- K-5 SLBM: The K-5 SLBM, under development for India’s Arihant-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs), is estimated to have a range of 5,000–8,000 km. This would enable India to target distant regions from the Indian Ocean, completing its nuclear triad and ensuring a survivable second-strike capability. The CISSS report claims the K-5’s range could threaten global capitals, including Washington.
CISSS argues that India’s pursuit of these long-range systems exceeds the requirements for deterring regional adversaries like Pakistan and China, suggesting a broader ambition to achieve global power status. The report warns that India’s nuclear buildup, combined with its non-signatory status to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), fuels regional insecurities and could destabilize global strategic stability.
The CISSS report appears to be a response to a recent think tank analysis, echoed by U.S. concerns, that Pakistan is developing a long-range ballistic missile capable of targeting the United States. On December 19, 2024, the U.S. imposed sanctions on four Pakistani entities involved in developing large-diameter solid rocket motors, which could enable an ICBM with a range exceeding 10,000 km. U.S. Principal Deputy National Security Advisor Jonathan Finer described this as an “emerging threat” to the United States, prompting Pakistan to criticize the sanctions as “unfortunate and unbiased,” asserting that its strategic capabilities are meant to preserve regional stability.
This mutual escalation in missile capabilities has heightened tensions in South Asia, a region already fraught with nuclear risks due to the India-Pakistan rivalry. A recent terror attack in Kashmir, killing 26 tourists, has further strained relations, with India intensifying counter-terrorism operations and Pakistan signaling its nuclear readiness through National Command Authority (NCA) meetings. The CISSS report frames India’s nuclear advancements as a provocative escalation, contrasting Pakistan’s “responsible” nuclear posture, which it claims is solely for deterrence.
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