SOURCE: AFI
According to a recent report by Sunday Guardian Live, Pakistan’s naval capabilities are facing a critical setback, with its fleet of Agosta-class submarines grappling with severe operational and maintenance challenges. The report highlights delays in critical repairs, including the overhaul of MESMA (Module d’Energie Sous-Marin Autonome) Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) systems and structural upgrades assisted by Turkey, compounded by supply-chain disruptions.
Alarmingly, one of Pakistan’s three Agosta-90B submarines was observed stranded ashore, signaling severe readiness deficits. These issues, coupled with the inherent limitations of diesel-electric submarines and financial constraints, have critically depleted Pakistan’s naval strength, casting doubt on its nuclear second-strike capabilities and exposing prolonged strategic vulnerabilities in the Indian Ocean region.
Pakistan’s submarine fleet, comprising five French-designed Agosta-class submarines (three Agosta-90B Khalid-class and two older Agosta-70 Hashmat-class), forms the backbone of its underwater warfare capabilities. The Agosta-90B, an advanced variant equipped with MESMA AIP systems, offers improved stealth and endurance compared to conventional diesel-electric submarines. With a submerged displacement of 2,010 tons, these submarines can dive to depths of 350–400 meters and are armed with 16 torpedoes, SM-39 Exocet anti-ship missiles, and potentially Babur-3 submarine-launched cruise missiles (SLCMs), which provide a nuclear second-strike capability.
The MESMA AIP system, a steam turbine-based technology that burns ethanol and liquid oxygen, allows the Agosta-90B to remain submerged for up to 16 days at low speeds, significantly enhancing its stealth and survivability compared to non-AIP diesel-electric submarines, which must surface frequently to recharge batteries. However, this endurance pales in comparison to nuclear-powered submarines, which can remain submerged for months, offering unmatched operational flexibility and strategic deterrence.
The Sunday Guardian Live report underscores that Pakistan’s Agosta-90B submarines are undergoing extensive modernization led by Turkish defense firms STM and HAVELSAN, a $350 million contract awarded in 2016. The upgrades include replacing sonar suites, periscope systems, command-and-control systems, radar, and electronic warfare effectors, as well as modifications to the pressure hull—the submarine’s most critical structural component. The first upgraded submarine, PNS Hamza, was delivered in 2020, demonstrating enhanced capabilities by sinking a decommissioned frigate with a DM-2A4 torpedo during the 2022 Sea Spark exercise.
However, the modernization program has been plagued by delays, primarily due to supply-chain disruptions affecting the availability of critical components for the MESMA AIP system and structural upgrades. These disruptions have left only two of Pakistan’s five submarines operational, with three Agosta-90Bs either undergoing prolonged maintenance or stranded, as evidenced by satellite imagery from March 2025 showing one submarine ashore at Karachi Naval Dockyard. This situation has significantly reduced Pakistan’s operational submarine fleet, exacerbating its strategic vulnerabilities.
The Agosta-90B’s MESMA AIP system, while advanced for a conventional submarine, provides limited underwater endurance—approximately 16 days at 3–4 knots—compared to nuclear-powered submarines, which can operate submerged for months. This limitation restricts Pakistan’s ability to maintain a persistent underwater presence, critical for sea denial and protecting sea lines of communication (SLOC) in the Arabian Sea, a lifeline for its economy.
Pakistan’s naval strategy hinges on its ability to maintain a credible nuclear second-strike capability, primarily through the Babur-3 SLCM, which has a reported range of 450 km and can be launched from Agosta-90B submarines. Successfully tested in 2017, the Babur-3 is designed to ensure retaliation even if land-based nuclear assets are neutralized, a cornerstone of Pakistan’s deterrence against India. However, the Sunday Guardian Live report raises concerns about the operational readiness of this capability, given that only two submarines are currently active.
The stranded Agosta-90B and ongoing maintenance of the others limit Pakistan’s ability to deploy nuclear-capable submarines, undermining its second-strike posture. Furthermore, the Babur-3’s limited range, compared to India’s longer-range K-15 and K-4 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), restricts its strategic reach, requiring submarines to operate closer to Indian waters, increasing their vulnerability to detection.
Pakistan’s economic challenges further compound its naval woes. The high cost of maintaining and upgrading the Agosta-90B fleet, coupled with the $5 billion deal for eight Chinese Yuan-class (Hangor-class) submarines, strains Islamabad’s defense budget. The Hangor-class program, expected to deliver AIP-equipped submarines by 2028, has also faced delays, with the first submarine launched in 2024. These financial pressures limit Pakistan’s ability to address supply-chain issues or expedite repairs, prolonging its strategic vulnerability.
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