SOURCE: AFI
A new report published by Foreign Affairs has revealed that the Pakistani military is developing a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) with the potential to reach the continental United States, citing US intelligence sources. The disclosure has sparked significant concern in Washington, with the report warning that if Pakistan successfully acquires an ICBM, “Washington will have no choice but to treat the country as a nuclear adversary.” This development marks a dramatic escalation in US-Pakistan relations, already strained by deteriorating ties since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, and underscores the growing complexity of global nuclear threats.
The Foreign Affairs report, authored by experts Vipin Narang and Pranay Vaddi, highlights US intelligence assessments concluding that Pakistan is actively pursuing an ICBM capable of striking targets over 5,500 km away, including the US mainland, approximately 12,000 km from Pakistan. While Pakistan has long maintained that its nuclear program is solely focused on deterring India, which holds conventional military superiority, the development of an ICBM suggests broader strategic objectives.
The report speculates that Pakistan may be seeking to deter the United States from two potential scenarios: a preventive attack aimed at neutralizing Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal or US intervention on India’s behalf in a future India-Pakistan conflict. “In acquiring such a capability, Pakistan may be seeking to deter the United States from either trying to eliminate its arsenal in a preventive attack or intervening on India’s behalf in a future Indian-Pakistani conflict,” the report states.
Pakistan’s longest-range missile to date, the Shaheen-III, has an estimated range of 2,750 km, sufficient to target all of India and parts of the Middle East but far short of reaching the US. The development of an ICBM would require significant advancements, including larger rocket motors and multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), technologies Pakistan is reportedly pursuing with assistance from entities in China and Belarus. US officials estimate that Pakistan’s ICBM capability is “several years to a decade away,” indicating a long-term but credible threat.
The Foreign Affairs report emphasizes that no country with ICBMs capable of targeting the US—currently Russia, China, and North Korea—is considered a friend. The prospect of Pakistan joining this group has profound implications for US foreign policy. “Regardless, as US officials have noted, if Pakistan acquires an ICBM, Washington will have no choice but to treat the country as a nuclear adversary,” the report warns, highlighting the strategic shift that would follow.
The US has already taken steps to curb Pakistan’s missile ambitions. On December 19, 2024, Washington imposed sanctions on four Pakistani entities, including the state-run National Development Complex (NDC), for their role in developing long-range ballistic missiles. These sanctions, the third round in a year targeting Pakistan’s missile program, also hit Chinese and Belarusian firms supplying missile-related equipment. Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer, speaking at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on December 19, 2024, labeled Pakistan’s missile development an “emerging threat,” noting that Islamabad’s pursuit of “increasingly sophisticated missile technology” raises “real questions” about its intentions.
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