SOURCE: AFI
Abdul Basit, a senior associate fellow at the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, has cautioned that India is gearing up for a potential “two-front war” against Pakistan and China. Speaking on June 15, 2025, Basit highlighted the shifting military dynamics in the region, noting that while China holds a clear edge over India in military superiority, India has traditionally maintained an advantage over Pakistan—until recent developments.
The warning comes in the wake of a four-day conflict between India and Pakistan that erupted on May 7, 2025, marking their most severe standoff since 1999. The clashes, which ended with a ceasefire on May 10, saw Pakistan widely perceived to have gained the upper hand, boosting its military’s reputation and earning domestic praise for a resolute response. This shift, Basit argues, has altered the strategic landscape, compelling India to rethink its defense posture.
Basit pointed out that China’s advanced military capabilities pose a significant challenge, but the recent Indo-Pakistan clashes have leveled the playing field with Pakistan. “Things have changed now, and India requires a better air defence system, new fighter jets to cater to a two-front war,” he said. The expert suggested that India’s current arsenal may fall short against simultaneous threats from both Beijing and Islamabad.
The 2021 ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC) had previously allowed India to redeploy approximately 50,000 to 60,000 troops to its border with China, particularly after the Galwan Valley clashes in 2020, where Pakistan remained neutral. However, Basit warned that Pakistan is unlikely to adopt a passive stance in a future two-front scenario. “Pakistan will not hold back now, if there is a two-front war. So, in that case, India needs to build up its arsenal,” he emphasized.
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