SOURCE: AFI
Tensions within the Pakistani military establishment are reportedly simmering following the recent conflict with India, where the Pakistani Air Force (PAF) took a leading role while the Pakistani Army played a secondary role. The designation of the Line of Control (LoC) as a ceasefire line after the conflict has left the Army feeling sidelined, with growing discontent over General Asim Munir’s promotion to Field Marshal. Defence analyst Ranesh Rajan has warned that Pakistan may be planning a Kargil-like incursion to internationalize the Kashmir issue, especially as India has signaled its reluctance to engage in bilateral talks.
The Pakistani Army’s limited role in the recent conflict, dubbed Operation Bunyan Marsoos by Pakistan in response to India’s Operation Sindoor, has sparked frustration among its ranks. According to posts on X, the PAF’s prominence in countering Indian airstrikes overshadowed the Army’s contributions, leading to perceptions that the Army “had little to show” for its efforts. The conflict, which ended with a ceasefire on May 10, 2025, saw India claim significant success in targeting nine terrorist launchpads and damaging 11 PAF airbases, while Pakistan’s claims of downing 5–6 Indian fighter jets and conducting retaliatory strikes remain unverified.
General Asim Munir’s elevation to Field Marshal, only the second officer in Pakistan’s history to hold this rank after General Ayub Khan in 1959, has further fueled discontent. The promotion, approved by Pakistan’s cabinet under Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, was framed as recognition of Munir’s “strategic brilliance and courageous leadership” during the conflict. However, critics within and outside the military argue that the Army’s performance was lackluster, with India’s Operation Sindoor exposing vulnerabilities in Pakistan’s air defense systems, including the Chinese-made HQ-9.
Defence analyst Ayesha Siddiqa has been quoted as saying, “Every time the Pakistani army loses a war, their generals pin on a medal,” a sentiment echoed by critics who view Munir’s promotion as an attempt to mask strategic failures. The Times of India reported that Munir’s investiture ceremony was marked by a deliberate snub to President Asif Ali Zardari, reflecting the military’s dominance over civilian leadership.
Defence analyst Ranesh Rajan has raised alarms about Pakistan’s potential plans to orchestrate a Kargil-like incursion to internationalize the Kashmir issue. The 1999 Kargil War, orchestrated by then-Army Chief General Pervez Musharraf, saw Pakistani troops and insurgents infiltrate Indian-administered Kashmir, occupying strategic peaks to disrupt India’s control over the region. The conflict, which ended with Pakistan’s withdrawal under U.S. pressure, was initially denied by Islamabad as the work of “freedom fighters” but later acknowledged as a military operation.
Rajan suggests that Pakistan’s military, feeling marginalized after the recent conflict and emboldened by Munir’s hardline stance, may resort to a similar strategy to provoke India and draw international attention to Kashmir. Munir’s inflammatory rhetoric, including calling Kashmir Pakistan’s “jugular vein” and invoking the two-nation theory, has already heightened tensions. His speech on April 16, 2025, at an Overseas Pakistanis Convention, where he emphasized ideological differences with India and vowed support for Kashmiri “struggles,” preceded the Pahalgam terror attack on April 22, which killed 26 people, mostly tourists. India linked the attack to Pakistan-backed militants, a charge Islamabad denies.
Rajan argues that Pakistan’s realization that India will not entertain bilateral talks on Kashmir, especially after India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and downgrading of diplomatic ties post-Pahalgam, may push the military to escalate tensions through asymmetric warfare. A Kargil-like incursion could involve infiltrating troops or proxies across the LoC to seize strategic positions, aiming to force international intervention and spotlight Kashmir as an unresolved dispute.
Munir’s leadership, often compared to General Zia-ul-Haq’s “bleed India with a thousand cuts” doctrine, reflects a shift toward religious nationalism and ideological confrontation with India. Unlike his predecessor, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, who emphasized regional stability and maintained a ceasefire along the LoC from February 2021 until the Pahalgam attack, Munir has adopted a more confrontational approach. His tenure as ISI chief during the 2019 Pulwama attack and his current role in shaping Pakistan’s Kashmir policy underscore his hawkish stance.
However, Munir faces significant internal challenges. Reports indicate dissent within the Army, with 5,000 officers and soldiers reportedly resigning after the Pahalgam attack amid fears of Indian retaliation. Three corps commanders were forced to resign, and a former ISI chief is behind bars, signaling internal discord. The Army’s failure to counter insurgencies in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, coupled with economic turmoil and public discontent over Imran Khan’s imprisonment, has weakened Munir’s domestic standing. Analysts suggest that escalating tensions with India serves as a tactic to rally nationalist sentiment and deflect criticism from internal failures.
The prospect of a Kargil-like incursion carries significant risks for the region. India’s response to the Pahalgam attack, through Operation Sindoor, demonstrated its willingness to conduct precision strikes on Pakistani territory, targeting terrorist infrastructure and airbases.
International actors, including the United States and China, have urged restraint, with the U.S. emphasizing a “responsible solution” and China welcoming de-escalation measures. However, the global community’s fatigue with Indo-Pakistani conflicts, as noted in the Times of India, suggests limited appetite for mediating another Kashmir crisis. India’s diplomatic offensive, including sending delegations to highlight Pakistan’s role in the Pahalgam attack, has countered Pakistan’s narrative of victimhood.
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