SOURCE: AFI
In a recent interview with Suno News HD, Commodore (R) Obaidullah stated that Pakistan could achieve nuclear submarine capabilities as early as 2028. While he did not specify whether this would involve the procurement of ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) or nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs), his remarks have sparked significant interest and speculation about Pakistan’s naval modernization efforts.
Commodore Obaidullah emphasized that the Pakistan Navy already possesses a second-strike nuclear capability, a strategic deterrent that positions Pakistan among a select group of nations with such capacities. The second-strike capability is a critical element of nuclear strategy, ensuring that a retaliatory nuclear strike can be delivered even if the country’s primary assets are compromised in a first-strike scenario.
Pakistan’s claim to a second-strike capability is reportedly linked to its Babur-3 submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM), which was first tested in 2017. This missile, with an estimated range of 450 km, is said to be deployable from Pakistan’s conventional submarines, providing a degree of nuclear deterrence.
Speculation about the source of Pakistan’s future nuclear submarines often points to China, a close ally and key defense supplier. China has been a significant partner in Pakistan’s naval modernization, including the ongoing delivery of eight Yuan-class (Type 039B) diesel-electric submarines with air-independent propulsion (AIP).
If Pakistan pursues SSBNs or SSNs, it is likely to seek Chinese assistance, either through direct procurement or technology transfer. China’s Type 093 SSNs or Type 094 SSBNs could serve as potential models for Pakistan’s ambitions.
The prospect of nuclear submarines reflects Pakistan’s focus on enhancing its maritime capabilities in a region marked by strategic rivalries. The Indian Navy’s growing blue-water capabilities, including its Arihant-class SSBNs and future SSN programs, are key drivers of Pakistan’s submarine ambitions.
If Pakistan succeeds in acquiring nuclear submarines by 2028, it would mark a significant milestone in the country’s naval evolution. However, such developments are also likely to intensify strategic tensions in the Indian Ocean Region, prompting further naval modernization efforts by regional and extra-regional powers.