SOURCE: AFI
The United States Air Force’s ambitious Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter program is facing a critical reassessment, echoing the fate of the F-22 Raptor with potential for limited production numbers. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall announced a pause on the NGAD program back in July 2024, following concerns over budget constraints, technological advancements, and the evolving threat landscape, particularly from armed drones.
The reassessment, led by acquisition chief Andrew Hunter and Vice Chief of Staff General James Slife, aims to scrutinize the program’s requirements in light of new technological developments and strategic necessities. The NGAD, envisioned as a sixth-generation stealth fighter to replace the aging F-22 Raptors, was initially projected to cost around $250 million per aircraft, a figure that has raised significant budgetary concerns.
The steep price tag of each NGAD aircraft is a major deterrent, especially in an era where fiscal responsibility is paramount. The Air Force is now looking for a more cost-effective solution that doesn’t compromise on capability.
The rise of sophisticated drone technology from adversaries has shifted the focus towards integrating more unmanned systems into the air dominance strategy, potentially reducing the need for as many manned aircraft.
Adding to the complexity, European nations have decided to pursue their own sixth-generation fighter program, distancing themselves from American-led projects like the NGAD. This move not only reduces the potential for international collaboration that could lower unit costs through bulk orders but also intensifies the competitive landscape of military aviation.
Unlike the F-35, which saw widespread international participation that helped drive down costs, the NGAD might not achieve similar economies of scale. Without European orders, the per-unit cost is unlikely to drop to the hoped-for $100 million, making the program less financially viable.
The NGAD’s future hangs in the balance as the Air Force contemplates whether to proceed with a reduced fleet of highly advanced but costly manned fighters or pivot towards a more distributed, tech-savvy approach to air combat. With the decision pending, the implications for U.S. air power, defense industry, and international military alliances are profound.