SOURCE: IDRW.ORG
As India and Pakistan stand on the brink of a potential full-scale war, the Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD) is reportedly contemplating a ban on the export of 155mm artillery shells to prioritize domestic needs, according to sources cited by idrw.org . This move comes amid heightened tensions following the Pahalgam massacre on April 22, 2025, which killed 26 tourists, and subsequent escalatory actions, including India’s scrapping of the 2021 LoC ceasefire and the deployment of GNSS jamming systems along the border.
While India’s private sector and public sector units (PSUs) have ramped up production and exports of 155mm shells to meet global demand in Europe and the Middle East, the MoD is now reassessing its strategy to ensure the Indian Army’s wartime requirements are met, highlighting the delicate balance between export ambitions and national security imperatives.
India has emerged as a significant player in the global artillery shell market, ranking third behind Russia and China in production capacity. Companies like Munitions India Limited (MIL), Yantra India Limited (YIL), and private firms such as Bharat Forge have capitalized on surging demand, particularly since the Ukraine-Russia conflict began in 2022. MIL secured a $225 million contract with Saudi Arabia in February 2024, while YIL’s order book for 155mm shells extends to 2026-27, with projected revenues of ?3,900 crore this fiscal year. Exports to the UAE, Armenia, and an unnamed European country—likely Poland or Slovenia—have also been notable, with the UAE purchasing 90,000 shells between 2017 and 2019. However, the global shortage of 155mm shells, exacerbated by the Ukraine war, has led to scrutiny over India’s export practices, with reports of Indian shells reaching Ukraine via third parties despite New Delhi’s official neutrality.
The Indian Army’s current inventory of 155mm shells is deemed sufficient, and production capacity is robust, with the private sector alone expected to produce over 3 lakh shells annually by FY 2027. Lt. Gen. Adosh Kumar, Director General of Artillery, recently highlighted the Army’s push for indigenous production to support its diverse 155mm gun systems, including the Dhanush, K9 Vajra-T, and DRDO’s ATAGS. However, a full-scale war with Pakistan could drastically alter these calculations. Estimates suggest the Army would require 1.5 lakh shells per month in such a scenario—half the current projected annual production capacity. A year-long conflict would demand over 15 lakh shells, four times the annual output, potentially straining reserves if exports continue unchecked.
Critics argue that a blanket export ban could harm India’s burgeoning defense export sector, which achieved a record ?21,083 crore in FY 2023-24, with ambitions to reach ?50,000 crore by 2028-29. Companies like YIL and MIL have invested heavily in modernizing production lines, with MIL’s budget increasing to ?745.45 crore in FY 2025 to expand capacity. An export ban risks losing hard-won markets in the Middle East and Europe, where Indian shells are valued for their NATO compatibility and low dud rates. Moreover, private sector players like Bharat Forge, which has secured contracts for systems like the Bharat 52 howitzer, argue that exports drive innovation and economies of scale, ultimately benefiting domestic production.
On the other hand, the MoD’s caution is grounded in strategic pragmatism. India’s refusal to supply shells to Israel in 2023 amid the Gaza conflict reflects a precedent of prioritizing geopolitical sensitivities over commercial gains. With Pakistan’s military backed by Chinese systems and potential foreign PMCs like the rumored Delta PMC, the Army cannot afford shortages in a prolonged conflict. The MoD’s earlier import bans on 310 major items, including artillery ammunition, underscore its focus on self-reliance, but the current export dilemma tests this policy’s limits. If production cannot scale rapidly—already a concern given BDL’s delays with other munitions like the Astra Mk1—a ban may be inevitable to safeguard national interests.
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