SOURCE: AFI
As regional tensions simmer and the shadow of unresolved conflicts continues to loom large, strategic planners in New Delhi are increasingly recognizing the value of maintaining constant pressure on Pakistan—particularly on its military apparatus—in the months ahead. This sustained vigilance is not merely about deterrence but also about shaping the operational environment should a decisive response be necessitated in the future.
Modern military strategy places high importance on preparation and shaping the battlespace well before the first shot is fired. In this context, keeping Pakistan—especially its military—on heightened alert over a prolonged period serves multiple strategic objectives.
- Operational Degradation:
The Pakistan Air Force (PAF), like any other military institution, operates under resource constraints. Keeping its fighter squadrons on high alert and maintaining a constant state of readiness over weeks or months puts considerable stress on maintenance cycles, crew endurance, and airframe availability. This gradually erodes operational availability rates, leaving fewer assets combat-ready if a real crisis emerges. - Psychological and Tactical Fatigue:
A continuous state of alert leads to decision fatigue, complicates resource allocation, and may trigger false alarms or overreactions that expose vulnerabilities. It also induces a reactive posture, making Pakistan’s military more predictable and less agile in the face of a well-timed, precise Indian strike. - Intelligence Preparation of the Environment (IPE):
Sustained military movements, exercises, and information operations help refine India’s understanding of Pakistan’s command and control networks, radar coverage patterns, air defense gaps, and response timelines. These insights are critical if New Delhi decides to launch a calibrated and high-impact punitive strike in response to a future provocation.
Among all branches of Pakistan’s military, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) holds critical importance in defending strategic assets and projecting deterrence. Therefore, keeping the PAF on edge—through frequent Indian Air Force (IAF) exercises, heightened aerial patrolling, and unpredictable drone/surveillance activity along the border—can:
Force the PAF to stretch its limited airframes, particularly aging platforms like the F-7PGs and Mirages, and overuse newer assets like the JF-17 Block II/III or F-16s. Disrupt training schedules, as operational pilots are diverted to combat alert duties. Accelerate wear and tear, increasing dependence on foreign maintenance support—something not easily scalable due to ongoing economic constraints.
By keeping Pakistan under constant pressure, India retains the initiative—choosing the time, place, and intensity of action—while forcing Pakistan into a defensive and stretched posture.
However, such a strategy must be pursued with precision and political oversight. The goal is not to escalate into full-blown conflict, but to prepare the ground so thoroughly that any necessary military response is swift, effective, and minimizes collateral damage. It is equally vital to coordinate such measures with diplomatic signaling, ensuring that global perception remains favorable to India’s right to defend itself.
India must not fall into the trap of reactive posturing. Instead, by keeping Pakistan—and specifically the PAF—on its toes for the next few months, New Delhi can strategically prepare the ground for any eventualities, degrade enemy readiness, and assert credible deterrence. In an era where hybrid warfare and surgical operations are the new norm, winning the preparatory phase might make all the difference when the time for action arrives.
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