SOURCE: AFI
India’s fighter procurement strategy stands at a crossroads as the Indian Air Force (IAF) seeks to modernize its aging fleet amid evolving regional threats and technological advancements. With a mix of indigenous ambitions and international partnerships in play, four potential scenarios have emerged for India’s next fighter acquisitions.
These scenarios revolve around the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) program—a planned purchase of 114 jets—and the pursuit of fifth-generation (5G) stealth capabilities. But are these the only paths forward, or could India explore additional options? Let’s examine the four scenarios and assess the broader landscape.
Scenario 1: No U.S. Fighters
- MRFA: 114 Dassault Rafale jets
- 5G: Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA)
In this scenario, India doubles down on its existing partnership with France, opting for an additional 114 Rafale jets to fulfill the MRFA requirement. The Rafale, a 4.5-generation fighter already in service with the IAF (36 delivered by 2022), offers proven multi-role capabilities, including air superiority, ground attack, and nuclear deterrence. This path ensures continuity, leveraging established logistics and training ecosystems. For stealth, India relies solely on the indigenous AMCA, a 5G fighter under development by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO). Expected to enter service in the 2030s, the AMCA reflects India’s “Make in India” vision but carries risks due to its untested timeline and technological complexity.
Pros: Strengthens Indo-French ties, avoids U.S. dependencies, and prioritizes self-reliance.
Cons: Limited stealth capability until AMCA matures; costlier Rafale units compared to some alternatives.
Scenario 2: U.S. MRFA, Indian 5G
- MRFA: 114 Boeing F-15EX Eagle II jets
- 5G: AMCA
Here, India pivots to the U.S. for its MRFA needs, selecting the F-15EX—a 4.5-generation heavy fighter with advanced avionics, a large payload capacity, and long-range strike potential. The F-15EX complements the IAF’s Su-30 MKI fleet and offers interoperability with U.S. allies, aligning with India’s Quad partnership (U.S., Japan, Australia). The 5G component remains the AMCA, keeping stealth development domestic. This scenario balances immediate capability with long-term sovereignty, though integrating U.S. systems could complicate India’s traditionally diverse supply chains.
Pros: Enhances Indo-U.S. defense ties, provides a robust non-stealth platform sooner.
Cons: No interim stealth solution; F-15EX lacks the Rafale’s operational familiarity.
Scenario 3: MRFA Scrapped, Dual 5G Path
- 5G 1: Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II
- 5G 2: AMCA
In this bold shift, India abandons the MRFA program entirely, focusing instead on acquiring fifth-generation stealth fighters. The U.S. F-35, recently floated as an option by President Donald Trump during a joint press conference with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, brings cutting-edge stealth, sensor fusion, and network-centric warfare capabilities. Paired with the AMCA, this scenario creates a two-tier 5G fleet: the F-35 for immediate deployment and the AMCA as a future indigenous backbone. However, scrapping MRFA risks leaving a gap in the IAF’s squadron strength, currently at 31 against a sanctioned 42.
Pros: Leapfrogs to stealth dominance, counters China’s J-20 and Pakistan’s J-35.
Cons: High F-35 costs, maintenance complexities, and delayed AMCA timelines could strain resources.
Scenario 4: U.S. MRFA + Dual U.S.-Indian 5G
- MRFA: 114 F-15EX jets
- 5G 1: F-35
- 5G 2: AMCA
The most ambitious scenario integrates U.S. fighters across both MRFA and 5G requirements. The F-15EX addresses immediate multi-role needs, while the F-35 provides stealth capabilities to counter regional threats from China and Pakistan. The AMCA remains the long-term 5G goal, ensuring indigenous technology development. This approach maximizes capability and geopolitical alignment with the U.S., but it comes at a steep financial and logistical cost, requiring India to sustain two advanced U.S. platforms alongside its diverse existing fleet (Su-30s, MiGs, Rafales, and Tejas).
Pros: Comprehensive solution with immediate and future capabilities; strengthens Quad ties.
Cons: Budgetary strain, dependency on U.S. spares and software, and potential delays in AMCA.
Are There More Scenarios?
While these four scenarios capture the primary contours of India’s fighter procurement debate, additional permutations are plausible, shaped by cost, geopolitics, and technological readiness:
- Russian Option Revived:
- MRFA: 114 Su-35 or MiG-35 jets
- 5G: Su-57 (Felon) + AMCA
India could revert to its historical reliance on Russia, opting for the Su-35 (a 4.5-generation fighter) or MiG-35 for MRFA, paired with the Su-57—a purported 5G stealth jet—alongside the AMCA. This maintains affordability and familiarity but risks obsolescence, as the Su-57’s stealth credentials remain debated, and sanctions on Russia complicate deliveries.
- Hybrid European-U.S. Mix:
- MRFA: Rafale or Eurofighter Typhoon x 114
- 5G: F-35 + AMCA
Combining European MRFA options (e.g., Rafale or Typhoon) with the U.S. F-35 and AMCA could diversify India’s supply base, reducing over-reliance on any single partner while accelerating stealth induction.
- All-In Domestic Push:
- MRFA: Tejas Mk2 x 114
- 5G: AMCA
An ultra-nationalistic scenario could see India prioritize the Tejas Mk2—a 4.5-generation fighter slated for 2027—over foreign MRFA imports, banking entirely on the AMCA for stealth. This avoids foreign dependencies but hinges on unproven production timelines and risks capability gaps against China’s J-20.
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