SOURCE: AFI
Christopher Clary, a political scientist at the University of Albany, recently highlighted a troubling trend for India’s air power, drawing on data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Military Balance. Between 2014 and 2024, China bolstered its fleet by adding 435 fighter and ground attack aircraft, while Pakistan expanded its own by 31. In stark contrast, India’s fleet shrank by 151 aircraft over the same period, raising concerns about its aerial combat readiness amid growing regional tensions.
India’s fighter jet strength, once a formidable force, has been eroded by the retirement of aging Soviet-era aircraft like the MiG-21, outpacing new inductions. With the Indian Air Force (IAF) currently operating 31 squadrons against a sanctioned strength of 42, the gap in capability is evident. Clary’s analysis underscores the urgency for India to reverse this decline, particularly as its neighbors strengthen their military aviation capabilities.
India’s response to this challenge is a robust, largely indigenous fighter jet expansion plan, aiming to induct over 500 aircraft in the coming decades. The centerpiece of this strategy is the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas, developed by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). Orders for 83 Tejas Mark 1A jets—an agile, multirole, homegrown fighter—have been confirmed, with an additional 97 expected to be finalized shortly. These lightweight jets are designed to replace retiring platforms and provide versatility across air-to-air and air-to-ground missions.
Meanwhile, the heavier and more advanced Tejas Mark 2 is under development, promising greater payload capacity and range. However, its induction remains years away. Further on the horizon, India’s ambitious stealth fighter, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), is in the design phase but is at least a decade from operational deployment. These homegrown efforts reflect India’s commitment to self-reliance under the “Make in India” initiative, though their timelines highlight the IAF’s immediate operational constraints.
To address short-term needs and complement its indigenous programs, India is pursuing the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) program, a $20 billion tender for 114 multirole fighter jets. Unlike the LCA, the MRFA requires foreign jets—potentially from contenders like Dassault’s Rafale, Boeing’s F/A-18 Super Hornet, or Lockheed Martin’s F-21—to be manufactured in India under a transfer-of-technology (ToT) agreement. This “Buy Global – Make in India” approach aims to accelerate inductions while building domestic manufacturing capabilities.
However, the MRFA faces significant hurdles. Delays in finalizing the tender, coupled with complex negotiations over ToT and local production, have slowed progress. The program’s scale and cost make it India’s most ambitious fighter jet procurement to date, yet its success hinges on aligning foreign OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) with Indian industrial partners—a process fraught with logistical and political challenges.
Clary’s data paints a sobering picture: China’s rapid fleet expansion and Pakistan’s modest gains contrast sharply with India’s shrinking numbers. The IAF’s reliance on aging platforms like the Mirage 2000, Jaguar, and MiG-29, alongside its 36 Rafale jets procured in 2016, cannot fully offset the loss of 151 aircraft. While the Tejas Mark 1A and eventual Mark 2 inductions will bolster numbers, their lightweight design limits their ability to match the heavy, long-range capabilities of China’s J-20 or Pakistan’s J-10C fighters.
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