SOURCE: AFI
The Indian Air Force (IAF) stands at a critical juncture as it navigates the modernization of its fighter fleet amidst a rapidly evolving regional security landscape. According to a projection by the India Today Group, the IAF’s fighter squadrons could plummet to as low as 25 by 2035 if the planned phasing out of aging platforms like the Jaguar, MiG-29, and Mirage-2000 squadrons proceeds over the next decade without sufficient replacements.
This number would bring the IAF’s squadron strength on par with the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), which currently operates 25 squadrons—a concerning prospect given India’s broader strategic commitments, including countering China along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). However, the projection paints only a partial picture, as it does not account for additional procurements and indigenous programs that could bolster the IAF’s capabilities in the coming years.
The India Today Group’s projection highlights the potential impact of phasing out legacy platforms without timely replacements. The IAF currently operates around 31 squadrons against a sanctioned strength of 42, already strained by the retirement of MiG-21 squadrons in recent years. The Jaguar, MiG-29, and Mirage-2000 fleets, inducted between the late 1970s and early 1990s, are nearing the end of their operational lives. If these squadrons—estimated at six Jaguar, three MiG-29, and three Mirage-2000 squadrons—are retired over the next decade as planned, the IAF could lose up to 12 squadrons, bringing its total strength down to 25 by 2035.
This projection factors in the delivery of 83 Tejas Mk1A aircraft by 2029, as per the current schedule with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). Assuming each squadron comprises 18 aircraft, these 83 jets would translate into approximately four to five squadrons, partially offsetting the loss of retiring aircraft. However, the India Today Group’s assessment does not include several other planned acquisitions and developments, which could significantly alter the IAF’s trajectory.
While the India Today Group’s projection raises valid concerns, it omits several critical developments that could mitigate the decline in squadron strength:
- Additional Tejas Mk1A Order: The IAF has signaled its intent to procure an additional 97 Tejas Mk1A aircraft beyond the 83 already on order. If finalized, this would add another five squadrons by the early 2030s, significantly bolstering the IAF’s numbers. The Tejas Mk1A, with its improved avionics, AESA radar, and enhanced combat capabilities, is a cornerstone of India’s push for self-reliance in defense manufacturing.
- Tejas MkII Induction: The Tejas MkII, a more advanced variant with greater payload capacity and range, is expected to enter production by the late 2020s. Projections indicate that 40–50 Tejas MkII aircraft could be inducted into the IAF by 2035, potentially adding two to three squadrons. Powered by the GE F414 engine and designed to replace the Mirage-2000 and Jaguar in the medium-weight category, the Tejas MkII promises to be a force multiplier.
- MRFA Tender for 110 Jets: The Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) tender for 110 jets, which has been in the pipeline for years, is another critical omission from the India Today Group’s projection. Contenders like the Dassault Rafale, Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet, and Eurofighter Typhoon are vying for this contract, which could add six squadrons if finalized and delivered within the next decade. The MRFA program, aimed at filling the gap left by retiring platforms, is pivotal for maintaining the IAF’s edge in multi-role capabilities.
The India Today Group’s comparison of the IAF’s potential 25 squadrons to the PAF’s current 25 squadrons merits scrutiny. While numerical parity in squadrons may seem alarming, it overlooks qualitative differences. The PAF’s fleet includes a mix of aging F-16s, JF-17s (developed with China), and Mirage III/V aircraft, many of which lack the advanced avionics, stealth features, and network-centric warfare capabilities of modern IAF platforms like the Rafale, Su-30MKI, and upcoming Tejas variants.
Moreover, India’s strategic imperatives differ vastly from Pakistan’s. The IAF must prepare for a two-front scenario involving both Pakistan and China, whose People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) operates over 50 fighter squadrons, including advanced platforms like the J-20 stealth fighter. Reducing the IAF’s strength to 25 squadrons could indeed undermine its deterrence posture, but focusing solely on squadron numbers risks oversimplifying the broader picture of air power, which encompasses technology, training, and operational doctrine.
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