SOURCE: AFI
On February 27, 2019, a dramatic aerial engagement over the Line of Control (LoC) between India and Pakistan became a defining moment for the Pakistan Air Force (PAF). An Indian Air Force (IAF) MiG-21 Bison, piloted by Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, shot down a PAF F-16 during a dogfight, exposing vulnerabilities in Pakistan’s air combat capabilities.
This incident, coupled with limitations in U.S. military support, particularly the lack of access to advanced AIM-120D AMRAAM missiles, served as a wake-up call for the PAF. It prompted a strategic shift toward procuring more advanced platforms like the Chinese J-10CE and, more recently, the J-35A, to modernize and bolster its air force.
The February 2019 skirmish followed India’s airstrike on a suspected terrorist camp in Balakot, Pakistan, in retaliation for the Pulwama attack. The PAF responded with an attempted strike on Indian military targets, leading to a high-stakes aerial confrontation. During this engagement, Wing Commander Varthaman’s MiG-21 Bison, an aging Soviet-era fighter, managed to shoot down a modern PAF F-16 using an R-73 air-to-air missile. The IAF claimed the F-16 was hit before Varthaman’s MiG-21 was shot down, leading to his capture after ejecting over Pakistani territory.
This incident was a significant embarrassment for the PAF. The F-16, a fourth-generation multirole fighter, was a cornerstone of Pakistan’s air fleet, equipped with advanced avionics and the AIM-120C AMRAAM missile, which offered beyond-visual-range (BVR) engagement capabilities. The fact that an outdated MiG-21 could bring down a technologically superior F-16 highlighted deficiencies in the PAF’s tactics, training, or equipment. It underscored the need for Pakistan to diversify and upgrade its air force to counter the IAF’s growing capabilities, particularly as India was integrating advanced platforms like the Rafale and upgrading its missile systems.
A critical factor in Pakistan’s post-2019 strategic rethink was the limited support from the United States, its primary supplier of advanced weaponry. The PAF’s F-16 fleet, particularly the Block-52 variants acquired in the mid-2000s, relies heavily on the AIM-120C AMRAAM for BVR combat. However, since the 2005 deal for 500 AIM-120C-5 missiles, the U.S. has not provided additional AMRAAMs to Pakistan, citing strategic concerns and shifting geopolitical priorities. Furthermore, the U.S. has consistently refused to supply the latest AIM-120D variant, which offers a longer range (up to 180 km) and improved guidance systems, to the PAF.
This restriction has significantly hampered the PAF’s ability to maintain a qualitative edge in BVR combat, especially against the IAF, which has access to advanced BVR missiles like the Russian R-77 and the European Meteor (equipped on Rafale jets). The AIM-120C-5, while capable, has a shorter range (approximately 100 km) and is less effective against modern electronic countermeasures. The lack of access to newer missiles has left the PAF’s F-16s at a disadvantage, particularly as India continues to modernize its air force with platforms and weapons designed for network-centric warfare.
The 2019 incident and the U.S.’s reluctance to supply advanced weaponry pushed Pakistan to deepen its defense partnership with China. Recognizing the need for modern, capable fighters to counter the IAF, the PAF moved swiftly to acquire the Chengdu J-10CE, an export variant of the J-10C, a 4.5-generation multirole fighter. The first batch of J-10CEs was inducted into the PAF in 2022, marking a significant upgrade over its aging Mirage and F-7 fleets.
The J-10CE offers several advantages, including an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, advanced avionics, and compatibility with Chinese PL-15 BVR missiles, which have a reported range of up to 200 km—surpassing the AIM-120C. The J-10CE’s agility, sensor suite, and missile capabilities provide the PAF with a credible counter to IAF platforms like the Su-30MKI and Rafale. The acquisition of 36 J-10CEs signaled Pakistan’s intent to reduce its reliance on U.S.-supplied equipment and diversify its air force with cost-effective, high-performance Chinese alternatives.
Looking further ahead, Pakistan has shown interest in the Shenyang J-35A, a fifth-generation stealth fighter developed by China. While still in the developmental phase, the J-35A is designed to compete with advanced fighters like the F-35 and India’s planned Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). Reports suggest the PAF is considering the J-35A to replace its older F-16s and bolster its stealth capabilities, particularly as India advances its indigenous stealth fighter programs. The J-35A, with its low-observable design, AESA radar, and long-range missile compatibility, would represent a quantum leap for the PAF, enabling it to challenge the IAF’s air superiority in the future.
The 2019 MiG-21 vs. F-16 encounter exposed the PAF’s vulnerabilities and catalyzed a broader modernization effort. The PAF’s shift toward Chinese platforms reflects both necessity and pragmatism, given the U.S.’s restrictive policies and India’s growing air power. The J-10CE has already enhanced the PAF’s ability to conduct BVR engagements and integrate with modern networked warfare systems. The potential acquisition of the J-35A would further elevate Pakistan’s air force, providing stealth capabilities and a platform capable of countering India’s advanced fighters.
However, challenges remain. The PAF must address logistical and training issues associated with integrating Chinese systems alongside its U.S.-origin F-16s. Additionally, while Chinese platforms are cost-effective, they lack the proven combat pedigree of Western systems, and their performance in high-intensity conflicts remains untested. Nevertheless, the PAF’s pivot to China underscores its determination to close the capability gap with the IAF.
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