SOURCE: RAUNAK KUNDE / NEWS BEAT / IDRW.ORG
India’s strategic defense planning faces new challenges as Dassault Aviation’s production backlog for the Rafale fighter jet has ballooned to 228 aircraft. This significant increase in orders has raised questions about the timeline for India’s acquisition of additional Rafale jets, particularly for the Indian Navy’s naval variant, the Rafale M.
According to recent assessments, if Dassault manages to produce an average of 20 Rafales per year in 2024 and 2025, 188 aircraft remain to be delivered between 2026 and 2033. This scenario would necessitate a ramp-up in production to almost 24 aircraft per year from 2026 onwards. While this rate is considered achievable by some experts, given Dassault’s previous success in boosting production when catering to orders from Egypt, India, and Qatar, it still poses logistical and supply chain challenges.
The Indian Navy, which has reportedly ordered 26 Rafale M aircraft, might see deliveries starting from 2030, even if the contract is signed in the early months of 2025. The initial deliveries would include four twin-seater variants, optimized for training, followed by the single-seater, carrier-capable jets. This timeline, shared by sources at idrw.org, reflects the strain on Dassault’s production capabilities due to the extensive backlog.
The Indian Air Force’s (IAF) experience with Rafale deliveries provides a precedent for current concerns. Despite a negligible backlog when the initial contract was signed in September 2016, the IAF received its first Rafale only on October 8, 2019. This extended timeline, even with fewer international commitments, highlights the complexities of international arms deals and aircraft manufacturing.
Dassault’s commitment to meeting its delivery obligations is under scrutiny. The company has promised to increase its production rate, but supply chain issues, as noted in various reports, could further complicate this. The international demand for the Rafale has not only validated its design and capabilities but also put pressure on Dassault to ensure that its production lines can meet these commitments without sacrificing quality or safety.
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