SOURCE: AFI
China’s aerospace industry has faced a steep decline in fighter jet exports in recent years, with Pakistan emerging as the sole exception, procuring nearly 200 JF-17 Thunder jets and 20 J-10CE fighters. As global demand for Chinese combat aircraft wanes against dominant players like Russia, South Korea, and the United States, China is now fast-tracking the supply of its fifth-generation J-35A stealth fighter to Pakistan, aiming to revitalize its export market and establish a foothold in the competitive global arms trade.
The JF-17, co-developed by China’s Chengdu Aircraft Corporation (CAC) and Pakistan’s Aeronautical Complex, has been a cornerstone of Pakistan’s air force modernization, with nearly 200 units delivered or on order. The J-10CE, an export variant of China’s J-10C multirole fighter, has also found a buyer in Pakistan, with 20 jets acquired to bolster its air combat capabilities. However, beyond Pakistan, China has struggled to secure significant export deals, as countries remain skeptical of the performance and reliability of Chinese jets compared to established Western and Russian platforms like the F-16, Su-30, or KAI T-50.
To counter this, China is betting on the J-35A, a twin-engine stealth fighter designed to compete with fifth-generation aircraft like the U.S. F-35 and Russia’s Su-57. By prioritizing Pakistan as the first export customer, China aims to leverage Pakistan’s combat operations to earn a “combat-proven” label for the J-35A, a tag that could enhance its appeal in the global market. Pakistan’s strategic position and ongoing tensions with India make it an ideal testing ground for China’s ambitions, as combat experience against a formidable adversary like the Indian Air Force (IAF) could validate the jet’s capabilities.
Chinese state media has recently made bold claims about the J-10CE’s performance, alleging that the 20 jets in Pakistan’s arsenal were instrumental in downing six IAF aircraft, including three Dassault Rafale fighters, in a supposed engagement. Notably, even Pakistan’s military has not officially corroborated these claims, raising doubts about their authenticity. The Rafale, a 4.5-generation multirole fighter, is widely regarded as one of the most advanced platforms in the IAF’s inventory, equipped with cutting-edge avionics and weaponry. The notion that 20 J-10CEs could decisively outperform such aircraft has been met with skepticism in defense circles.
Following these claims, shares of AVIC (Aviation Industry Corporation of China), the parent company of CAC, which manufactures the J-10CE, saw a brief uptick in the stock market. Investors appeared to react to the narrative of Chinese jets achieving air superiority. However, the surge was short-lived, and stock prices have since declined, reflecting market doubts about the veracity of the claims and the broader reliability of Chinese combat aircraft. Analysts suggest that without credible evidence or confirmation from Pakistan, the international defense community remains unconvinced of the J-10CE’s purported success.
China’s strategy hinges on using Pakistan as a proving ground to enhance the credibility of its aircraft. By supplying the J-35A to Pakistan, China hopes to demonstrate the jet’s capabilities in real-world scenarios, potentially attracting buyers from developing nations seeking cost-effective alternatives to Western and Russian platforms. The J-35A, with its stealth features, advanced radar, and sensor fusion, is positioned as a rival to the F-35, though its actual performance remains untested in combat.
However, significant hurdles remain. The global fighter jet market is fiercely competitive, with the U.S., Russia, and South Korea maintaining strong footholds. The U.S. F-35 and F-16, Russia’s Su-35 and Su-57, and South Korea’s T-50 family have established track records, robust supply chains, and extensive support networks—advantages that Chinese manufacturers struggle to match. Moreover, concerns about the quality of Chinese engines, avionics, and after-sales support continue to deter potential buyers.
Pakistan’s unique position as a reliable customer stems from its limited options due to geopolitical constraints and budget limitations. While the JF-17 and J-10CE have been integrated into its air force, their performance against advanced adversaries like India’s Rafale or Su-30MKI remains unproven in large-scale conflicts. The IAF’s technological edge, bolstered by systems like the Meteor missile and AESA radar, poses a formidable challenge to China’s claims of air dominance.
China’s decision to fast-track the J-35A to Pakistan reflects a calculated move to break into the high-end fighter jet market. A successful deployment could provide the combat validation China needs to attract other buyers, particularly in Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, where cost considerations often outweigh brand loyalty. However, overstated claims, like those surrounding the J-10CE, risk undermining China’s credibility if not substantiated.
For now, the global market remains cautious. While Pakistan’s procurement of Chinese jets has kept China’s aerospace industry relevant, convincing other nations to invest in unproven platforms like the J-35A will require more than bold assertions. Combat performance, transparency, and sustained operational success will ultimately determine whether China can challenge the dominance of established players in the fighter jet export market.
NOTE: AFI is a proud outsourced content creator partner of IDRW.ORG. All content created by AFI is the sole property of AFI and is protected by copyright. AFI takes copyright infringement seriously and will pursue all legal options available to protect its content.