SOURCE: AFI
China’s military support to Pakistan has long been a cornerstone of its strategy to keep India in check, creating a persistent thorn in New Delhi’s side along its western border. From advanced fighter jets to hypersonic missiles, Beijing has steadily equipped Islamabad with cutting-edge weaponry, leveraging their “all-weather” alliance to counterbalance India’s regional ambitions. Meanwhile, India, despite its growing defense industry and warming ties with Taiwan, has refrained from arming the island with Indian-made weapons—a move that could signal defiance to Beijing but has yet to materialize. This contrast highlights a tale of strategic intent versus missed opportunities.
China’s defense collaboration with Pakistan is both deep and deliberate. Over decades, Beijing has supplied Islamabad with an array of sophisticated platforms: the JF-17 Thunder fighter (co-developed with Pakistan), Type 054A/P frigates for the Pakistan Navy, and the HQ-9 air defense system, mirroring China’s own capabilities. In 2024, speculation intensified that China might transfer its DF-17 hypersonic missile—capable of speeds exceeding Mach 5 and a range of 2,500 km—to Pakistan. Such a weapon could challenge India’s S-400 air defense system, acquired from Russia in 2022, which has been touted as a game-changer against conventional threats but struggles with hypersonic targets.
This escalation follows a pattern. During the 2020 Galwan Valley clash, China’s military buildup along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) coincided with Pakistan’s heightened activity along the Line of Control (LoC), suggesting a coordinated two-front pressure tactic. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship of the Belt and Road Initiative, further intertwines their interests, with Gwadar port offering China a strategic foothold in the Arabian Sea—within striking distance of India’s western coast. Posts on X frequently note that China’s arming of Pakistan, including potential deals for J-35A stealth fighters unveiled in 2024, aims to bog India down in South Asia, limiting its ability to project power eastward against China.
Beijing’s strategy is clear: arm Pakistan to keep India preoccupied with a western threat, diluting its focus on the LAC and broader Indo-Pacific ambitions. This aligns with historical precedent—China’s support during the 1965 and 1971 India-Pakistan wars, and its nuclear assistance in the 1980s, which helped Pakistan achieve parity with India’s nuclear arsenal. Today, with over 200 J-20 stealth fighters in its own fleet, China sees Pakistan as a cost-effective proxy to stretch India’s military resources thin.
Contrast this with India’s approach to Taiwan, a natural ally in countering China’s assertiveness. Taiwan faces relentless pressure from Beijing, which claims it as a renegade province and has intensified military drills simulating invasions—over 125 incursions into Taiwanese airspace in 2024 alone. India, with its burgeoning defense industry, could have used this as an opportunity to arm Taiwan with indigenous weapons, sending a bold message to Beijing while bolstering a fellow democracy’s defenses.
India’s arsenal includes credible systems ripe for export: the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile (range 290-600 km), co-developed with Russia; the Akash air defense system; and the Pinaka rocket launcher, all combat-proven and adaptable to Taiwan’s needs. The Tejas Mk1A fighter, though lightweight, offers a cost-effective alternative to U.S. or European jets, while DRDO’s loitering munitions could enhance Taiwan’s asymmetric warfare capabilities against a PLA invasion. In 2021, India gifted 200,000 vaccine doses to Paraguay to counter China’s vaccine diplomacy targeting Taiwan’s allies, showing willingness to support Taipei indirectly. Yet, no significant arms transfers have followed.
Why the hesitation? India’s foreign policy treads cautiously to avoid provoking China into further escalating along the LAC, where tensions persist post-2020. The S-400 deal and reliance on Russian hardware also complicate alignment with Western sanctions regimes, which could view arming Taiwan as a red line. Unlike China’s overt backing of Pakistan, India lacks a formal defense pact with Taiwan, and its “Act East” policy prioritizes Southeast Asia over direct confrontation in the Taiwan Strait. Posts on X lament this as a strategic misstep, with users arguing that arming Taiwan could mirror China’s Pakistan playbook, forcing Beijing to divert resources eastward.
The disparity is striking. China arms Pakistan with impunity, integrating it into its broader Indo-Pacific strategy—evident in joint exercises like Shaheen-X in 2024, where PLA and PAF pilots trained on stealth tactics. Beijing’s $62 billion CPEC investment ensures Pakistan’s economic dependence, securing its loyalty. India, despite exporting $2.5 billion in defense equipment in 2024 (e.g., WhAP to Morocco, artillery to Armenia), has not extended similar largesse to Taiwan. The IAF’s 36 Rafales and 83 Tejas Mk1As bolster its own defenses, but New Delhi’s reluctance to weaponize its Taiwan relationship leaves a diplomatic and military lever unused.
Taiwan’s requests for Indian arms have been muted, likely due to fears of Chinese retaliation, but unofficial channels exist. India’s hosting of Taiwanese delegations—like the 2023 visit by ex-military chiefs—hints at potential, yet no concrete deals have emerged. Meanwhile, China’s J-35A could reach Pakistan by 2027, amplifying the PAF’s stealth capabilities, while India’s AMCA remains years from induction. This imbalance suggests China’s proactive containment outpaces India’s reactive posture.
India’s failure to arm Taiwan isn’t just a missed opportunity—it’s a strategic gap. By equipping Taipei, India could signal that two can play at proxy games, pressuring China’s eastern flank as Beijing does India’s west. The BrahMos, for instance, could threaten PLAN ships in the Taiwan Strait, while Akash systems could counter Chinese drones—mirroring Pakistan’s HQ-9 deployments against India. Such a move might deter China from further arming Pakistan with hypersonics or stealth tech, recalibrating the regional power balance.
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