SOURCE: AFI
In his recent opinion piece, retired Indian Air Force (IAF) Jaguar pilot Vijainder K Thakur highlighted a concerning scenario for India’s aerial defense capabilities by 2030. He predicts that the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) could operate two squadrons of J-35A stealth fighters, amounting to approximately 40 aircraft. At the same time, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) of China, which is currently estimated to have around 200 J-20 stealth fighters, might double its fleet to 400.
In sharp contrast, Thakur notes, the IAF is unlikely to have any stealth fighters operational by 2030. At best, the IAF might place an initial and speculative order for the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), which is still under development.
This looming stealth technology gap poses a significant challenge for India’s defense. Stealth fighters like the J-20 and J-35A are equipped with advanced air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles that can be launched without being detected by conventional radar systems. Such capabilities could allow adversaries to neutralize Indian defenses before they even detect an attack.
Thakur argues that this widening disparity threatens to undermine India’s military deterrence, especially given its precarious geopolitical position. India continues to contend with two unresolved and potentially volatile conflicts: one with China along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and another with Pakistan over Jammu & Kashmir. In such a scenario, Thakur emphasizes that both peace-building efforts and a robust military buildup are essential. However, he criticizes India’s current pace, asserting that neither peace nor deterrence is being pursued with the required urgency.
The analysis serves as a stark warning, urging policymakers to address the stealth capability gap to safeguard India’s national security and maintain strategic balance in the region.