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SOURCE: RAJESH AHUJA / FOR MY TAKE / IDRW.ORG

India has protested Pakistan’s plans to make Gilgit-Baltistan as a separate fifth province, which is the same status as a full-fledged state back in India which for the first time affects the geopolitics of the disputed area after the instrument of accession a legal document executed by Maharaja Hari Singh, ruler of the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir, on 26 October 1947.

Pakistan’s Political Oppositions is divided over proposed plans to make Gilgit-Baltistan as a separate fifth province and many have raised legitimate concerns which Prime Minister Imran Khan and the Bajwa backed by a deep state called Establishment in Pakistan seems to be ignoring it, but the fault lines which is going to emerge will be very difficult for India to ignore and not explore it to create turmoil and use it for India’s advantage in the long term to settle Kashmir dispute as per India’s long term strategic vision.

On August 5, 2019, the government of India revoked the constitutional autonomy of its Muslim-majority state of Jammu and Kashmir, and soon Panicky Pakistan tried its best to take the matter to UNSC for final settlements. but with four of the five UNSC members backing India, Pakistan failed miserably to drag India to UNSC nor it was able to Pass any critical resolutions against India even though a section of Western Liberal Media along with Turkish and Qatari media has been acting as Pakistan Government official medium agencies but since past one year it has failed to drum up any support from Western or European countries.

Dual National Dr. Moeed Yusuf, who is in charge of Pakistan’s National security adviser to the PM is seen as Man behind recent changes in Pakistan’s new Political Map and the addition of the former princely state of Junagarh after years of excursion from its Map. Yusuf recently explained to Pakistani media that turning Gilgit-Baltistan into a province will not violate any UNSC Reolstuions since India has made J&K as a State in 1954 and Gilgit-Baltistan will be temporarily declared as a province till the final settlement of the whole disputed area is decided as per UNSC resolutions which includes Plebiscite in the region.

Many in Pakistan have accused Yusuf, an American national of trying to settle the dispute by converting the Line of Control (LOC) into a de facto international border between India and Pakistan which is the same as what the US Think Tanks and Administration could want and many of the arguments made by the Yusuf too sounds more of theoretical than practical especially coming from his background which had made similar advocacy in the past but Yusuf has categorically denied that LOC will become a de facto international border between India and Pakistan but many inside seems to be thinking so.

Puppet Prime Minister Raja Farooq Haider Khan of Pakistan occupied Kashmir (POK) seems to be one unhappy man in POK today, last year while addressing a ceremony in Muzaffarabad he made a controversial statement that ” He may be the last Prime Minister of Azad Jammu & Kashmir (POK) ” which unleashed widespread panic among residents of POK about a possible move by Islamabad for permanent disintegration and division of the disputed state.

Raja Farooq Haider Khan recently also criticized Prime Minister Imran Khan for doing nothing over India’s moves in its side of Kashmir and also took on PM over proposed moves of Pakistan’s Government to declare Gilgit-Baltistan as a separate fifth province. He also went ahead and said that we failed to liberate Kashmir in the last 70 years and lack of actions and this moves in Gilgit-Baltistan will ensure that it won’t happen in the next 70 or 700 years also, which many Politicians from POK seem to agree with them over his statement and many protests have been organized in POK recently over this issue but Pakistan seems to be heading towards declaring Gilgit-Baltistan as a separate fifth province.

Abdul Basit, a retired Pakistani diplomat who served as the former high commissioner of Pakistan to India, too has criticized the move and also warned that it will affect Pakistan’s long-standing advantage in the disputed area as this move will have little or no advantage for Pakistan domestically and move towards the settlement of the dispute as India wants it to be.

Many Pakistani Media personals and think tank also seems not to be fully onboard these plans but with the backing of an establishment not many want to take on their Military. for India, which is always called Gilgit-Baltistan as its territories in the past 70 years has made little or no effort to recover these areas even when it had opportunities. Hostile local population and settlement of people from Pakistan’s Punjab mean it always will be difficult to rule or capture even though sentiments in India calls for taking them back from Pakistan. But the fallout of Pakistan’s Gilgit-Baltistan moves will provide some advantage to India at least on the International stage.

Likely Fallout of Gilgit-Baltistan declared as a separate fifth province

*The act will be seen as Betray by People with Separatist tendency on the Indian side

*They could be similar demand from Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) to be declared as its province

*Hopes of having ” Independent Kashmir ” not part of India or Pakistan Dies on both sides of the border

*Pakistan’s Drama of Autonomy or Independence of its areas like POK and GB will be in Questioned at International Stage

*Demographic changes will Null and Void calls for UN-monitored ” Referendum” or ” Plebiscite”

*UNSC Resolutions will be on the backburner and not likely to be raised again ever

*Countries will start considering and recognizing LOC as a de facto international border between India and Pakistan

*Cross Border infiltration will no longer be seen as a movement of Indigenous people but now as an act of Terror.

*Chinese take over of Gilgit-Baltistan will be seen as a sell-out of the area by International communities.

*Plans to have Autonomous J&K on both sides managed by India and Pakistan is also over

*International Pressure on India will be reduced, Future Talks will be held to settle LOC as International Border In the long term, Terrorism in the Kashmir Valley will be on the decline

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