SOURCE: AMIT PANDEY/ FOR MY TAKE / IDRW.ORG
The sale of Russian S-400 missile system to India has rattled several feathers and punctured Pakistani Military self-believe that they have thwarted and in fact actually derailed India’s Cold Start Doctrine successfully which will allow them to carry on their old strategy of bleeding India will thousand cuts instead of actually fighting a conventional war which they know they can never win.
Pakistani strategic experts are fast to claim that their Ababeel Missile System which possesses untested ‘Mirv’ capability will not only defeat the S-400 system but also overwhelm India’s anti-ballistic missile systems thus acting as a system which will derail any pre-emption tendencies among Indian military planners.
Experts around the world who have studied Ababeel Missile System are not so convinced about the missile system itself due to dubious reputation of Pakistani defense establishments which have always relied heavily on the North Korean and Chinese Ballistic Missile technology in the first place to develop this missile system.
Ababeel Missile System is redesigned Shaheen-III air frame which has MIRV carrier bus as seen in the pictures. Missile system looks crude and what we in India call Juggad (Temporary fix) rather than a convincing weapon system which can overwhelm an anti-ballistic missile.
But this doesn’t stop Pakistani military establishments to showcase it has some revolutionary weapon system only they have mastered while far more advanced MIRV Capable systems around the world with a higher range have never even demonstrated such capabilities in such short range missile nor have ever claimed that it will work against targets which are so close to launch platforms.
According to US military planners, Ababeel Missile System is nowhere close to being deployed nor it has demonstrated its MIRV capabilities. Experts are also questioning Pakistan lack of expertise in anti-ballistic missile systems to actually make such claim that they have such a weapon system which can defeat world-renowned weapons systems like S-400 or India’s BMD systems which have several world-class tracking components which can detect and track each missile even if they are launched from remotest of the places in Pakistan.
Radars of the S-400 system and that of India’s BMD are powerful enough to scan the whole of Pakistani airspace and Satellites will be able to trace all missile systems which are mobile making it virtually impossible to have safe launches from ideal positions which punctures Pakistan’s self-believe that they can stop any Indian advancements.
Their nervousness can be seen from the steps they have taken to complete their nuclear triad. Nuclear tipped Sub-sonic cruise missiles equipped on conventional submarines is route even North Korea didn’t take and went on to develop a proper submarine-launched ballistic missile system even with their limited resources.
Poor economic conditions and lack of technological research is one of the major reasons why Pakistani military planners are counting on bluffs and Juggad weapon systems to halt any possible Indian military aggression, while India is relying on proven and world-class technology for its defense.
Growing Installation of sophisticated air defense systems on the western side of the border have ensured that Pakistani air force will lose a major chunk of its fleet if it tries to be offensive on the western sector, the Pakistani military has kept nuclear angle option in place to maintain its unpredictability and to also ensure that India conventionally doesn’t overpower them in possible conflict but system like Nasr, Ababeel or Nuclear-tipped Sub-sonic missiles are not effective of systems which can actually work in a war and are far less detrimental against India.
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