SOURCE: HIMANSU SWAIN/ FOR MY TAKE / IDRW.ORG
First at Galwan& now at Chushul, PLA isn’t in mood to de-escalate the military build-up across LAC. They are deliberately intensifying the heat on border after observing Indian economy facing severe GDP downfall during COVID-19 Pandemic. They will keep amplifying the rate of incursion into Indian Territory unless India Govt succumbs to CCP leadership & acknowledges them superpower in place of USA.
That’s why, they are coming with two options. Either India accepts Chinese hegemony in the world through easy way or they would exercise hard option to punish India through military assaults. They have already analysed India’s Strong points & loopholes across border & now they are preparing for assault.
PLA’s analysis on India’s weakness
• Chicken Neck is India’s Vulnerability in its NE sector.
• IAF have a shortage 300 of fighter jets as only 25 squadrons are of modern fighters.
• India doesn’t have long rangeSAM system like HQ-9 (230 KM) as they have produced large numbers of HQ-9 battery & deployed them.
• India’s Air Defence is obsolete.
PLA’s analysis on India’s Muscularity
• They have a strong & well experienced mountain strike force of 200,000 troops. It is arduous to target to defeat them on mountains.
• They have the best logistic support compared to PLA in Tibet.
• They have deployed unknown numbers of Conventional as well as Cruise from Arunachal to Ladakh.
• All of their airbases across LAC &Macmohan line are under Air Defence protection.
2 months after Galwan clash, a lot of things have changed in Tibet in terms of PLAAF deployment. After different strategic reports published by various International think tanks about India-China military posturing on Himalayas, Chinese has made a dramatic change in their military installations.
In the last two months, they brought at least 15-20 SAM batteries including HQ-9, HQ-16& S-300 to forward airbases & Army Garrisons. They have deployed these batteries on 13 locations along Indo-China Border. The big air fields like Hotan, Shingtase&Gonggar house 2-3 Batteries of HQ-9 & HQ-16 or HQ-16 & S-300 type deployments. They have also deployed a HQ-16 battery at Kailash mansarover.
The strategy behind their deployment is to restrict IAF offensive packages into their territory. Even if IAF plans to enter Tibet, they have to perform SEAD as well as DEAD missions which would be more complicated on Mountains. As IAF jets busy in conducting DEAD missions, PLAAF would send 300-400 of fighter jets through Myanmar border in 1 or 2 stages of attacksto bomb Indian military installations in 7 Sister states. When such heavy force comes for a particular direction, it can easily supress any of the defence system deployed there despite suffering losses.
With such plan, they are ready to absorb losses by Indian Missile strikes on their Air bases in Tibet in one hand while penetrating with sucha massive force through Myanmar to make India defenceless in NE frontiers.
As a result, PLA can cross Chicken neck & cut off NE India from mainland India. Even If Chinese fighter jets violate Bangladesh air space, Sheikh Hasina Govt would dare to stop PLAAF strike package. Once PLAAF jets enter West Bengal, they would bomb on Water Reservoirs, Dams like Hirakud to flood the plains of Eastern India by forcing Indian army to involve in SAR operations. With such actions, Chinese Govt would ultimately force Indian Govt to surrender & India having No First Use Nuclear policy will finitely force to admit defeat in the war.
Therefore, we should not only look at Ladakh but also pay attention to North Eastern Frontiers.
This is what I believe about Chinese nefarious designs on India. Our Military planners must have aware of such designs. Let’s Hope, The Dharma will be Victorious.
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