SOURCE: SHIVA MUDGIL / FOR MY TAKE / IDRW.ORG
According to a Defence Industrial forecast report for 2019 till 2028, there will be a requirement for 3400 fighter jets in the next decade which is slightly more than last decade due to considerable procurement request by various countries. According to the report, F-35 fighter aircraft variants will be highest produced fighter jet for the next decade due to incremental orders from the United States armed forces and their NATO allies taking the Number one spot of the highest produced fighter aircraft.
Close to 1500 F-35 variants will be produced in the next ten years which make up nearly 45% of the market share of the fighter aircraft manufactured in this period. India if it manages to manufacture around 150 Tejas variants (Tejas Mk1-20/Tejas Mk1A-83, Tejas Mk Trainer-4/Tejas Mk2-43) in this period then it will hold a market share of just over 4% considering only confirmed orders for the platform from the Indian air force is taken into calculations.
The same report also highlights that Countries who will be on the lookout for the new fighter jets in Light and Medium Category aircraft will make up nearly 1200 of the fighter jet produced in the period, leaving small space for nearly 500 Heavy class fighter aircraft like Sukhoi-30/35/57 and F-15 range which will continue to get additional orders from countries who are operating them.
The United States of America due to F-35 and orders of its legacy platforms like F-16 and F-18,F-15 from its current operators will continue to dominate the fighter aircraft market even for next decade to be followed by Russia which will continue to focus on its own domestic orders as well as that of Sukhoi-3X and Mig-35 series for Export market taking second spot in fighter jet manufactured in this period.
China will take the third spot since the country is likely to witness a faster pace of manufacturing of its 5th generation fighter aircraft like J-20 and F-31 which will be further scaled up to meet its domestic and export market along with the development of Naval Carrier-based fighter jets after the failure of Shenyang J-15. China along with the development of a new short takeoff/vertical landing (STOVL) variant which will enter the testing phase in the same period. JF-17 Variants will continue to remain its most exported fighter jet from the Chinese stable due to incremental orders from the Pakistani Airforce which is likely to place orders for another 100 of this jets in latest Block-III/IV variants in this period. JF-17 will also see some level of export orders from African countries and will have a Market share of just over 4% for this period largely due to orders from Pakistan.
While the current government is focusing on export of defense equipment, India is yet to see any orders coming its way for its fighter jets it manufactures even though reports of many countries interested in procurement of Tejas fighter series has been going around for a while now. With less than 20 aircraft supplied to IAF, many potential buyers of the Tejas fighter aircraft are watching how new Tejas Mk1A variant pans out and want to see how smoothly it is manufactured and delivered to the Indian air force before they commit to buying them. HAL is also planning to develop Supersonic Omni Role Trainer Aircraft (SPORT) based on the Tejas Trainer variant which if successful will have great export potentials from South and eastern Asian countries who are always on the lookout for Trainer cum light attack jets in the region. India will be required to secure export orders for at least 50 platforms to increase its market share close to 6 %.
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