SOURCE: ATUL KUMAR / FOR MY TAKE / IDRW.ORG
As time passing , tussle between US and Iran getting advance. After ending many waivers to buyers of Iranian oil now Donald Trump posted a threatening tweet against Iran which is really a matter of serious concern. On the other side Iran government has vowed to protect its territory at any cost. Tensions between Washington DC and Tehran gets heat when a unknown rocket was fired into the Iraqi capital Baghdad’s highly protected green zone on 19th June at night, falling near the American Embassy but causing no casualties. Although there are tensions in the gulf but it seems US is not in the mood of war and Trump publicly appealed to Iran to call him, the white house contacted the Swiss on 9th may to share a phone number the Iranians could call the white house.
But Swiss likely won’t hand over the number unless the Tehran asked for it. Well US asked Swiss for this help because since 1980 after Islamic Revolution in Iran there are no diplomatic relation between US and Iran. But on 10th may Iranian Islamic revolutionary guards head said Iran would not talk to US.
Another war in middle east for US can increase its tensions further as US task in Syria , Afghanistan and Iraq is not fully finished yet, in all three conflicts we can not say USA a clear winner. History of US-Iraq war shows struggle of Americans victory , there were total 450,000 troops who fought against US in Iraq war, and American forces took nearly 8.5 years to control the situations there while total area of Iraq is about 435,000 square Km.
While Afghanistan’s total area is 650,000 Km square, when US attacked in Afghanistan ,local rivals inside the country fought against American troops and till today US still fighting that war in Afghanistan although they (local mujaheddin rivals Taliban) are not as professionals as US army, A army with world best weapons and fighting tactics but still they failed to win the war, so war within A area of more than 1,600,000 km square with mountainous regions and against capable and advance forces might have been a disaster for US bigger than Iraq or Afghanistan war, Iran has a good powerful Army, navy and Air supports which Iraq or Afghanistan’s fighter’s don’t have and addition to this Iran has around 850,000 troops ( active + reserve) with some fantastic weapons in its armory, weapons like ballistic missiles, Cruise missiles , anti ship and land attack weapons, which would make US path very difficult more than ever, A war ( including complicated gorilla war) which would be fight much longer than any war, and US don’t want it any how.
In America ‘Iraq war’ and ‘Afghanistan war’ are very important and sensitive issues and in last presidential election in 2016 Donald Trump won the election over these issues, he opposed the last government decision to go into war in Iraq and also promised that if he become the president then he will not engage any of this kind of war in future until direct national security threats are not arise.
Next year US will engage next presidential election so Donald Trump would not willing to go in to war with Iran at this time, this is also the main reason behind Trump’s appeal for talk, while Trump Administration main objective is to remove Iran’s current regime which can be achieved by Economical sanctions without any war trouble, because of white house sanctions the Iranian Economy crumbled badly, inflation is at highest level and regime is facing massive protest inside country, as countries like India, South Korea, Japan already stopped buying Iran’s oil , while China which buys half of Iran’s oil also going to stop buy oil because of amid trade war with United States, that’s how without fighting any war US can achieve it’s objective in middle east in coming years, So all US need is to put pressure economically. Although Saudi Arabia is putting pressure on US to declare war against Iran ,the recent attack on Saudi Arabia ships is also a matter of serious concern as Saudi is targeting Iran for this while no one knows who attacked those ships.
United States NSA John R. Bolton quietly supporting Saudi’s intentions by driving US towards war , On the other hand Trump trying to control the situation by talk. Here US can save middle east from war by choosing other alternatives, Because war would not only make middle east more worse but also badly affect US as well, so it is better to de escalate now.
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