SOURCE: AMIT PANDEY/ FOR MY TAKE / IDRW.ORG
If sale of S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missile systems from Russia to India rang alarm bells in Islamabad then India’s intent to procure NASAMS to secure its capital and also possible purchase of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile defense system supplemented by India’s own two-layered ballistic missile defense (BMD) to protect is major metros will raise considerable doubts in Islamabad about India’s intention about it’s Nuclear Policies.
Till now, India has maintained a ” No First Strike Nuclear policy ” which allowed Pakistan to escalate any future conventional war into a Nuclear war whenever it feels that conventionally superior Indian military will overwhelm them, but recent chatters in India’s Nuclear circle doesn’t hint at major tweaking which is gonna take place or already is in motion.
Off late prominent people who were previously associated with India’s Strategic Forces Command (SFC) or Nuclear Command Authority (NCA) have been openly advocating changes to India’s ” No First Strike Nuclear policy” specifically while dealing with Pakistan and allow India to carry out a pre-emptive nuclear strike which will literally save India’s major cities from becoming collateral damage in case Pakistan decided to Nuke India first.
India recently achieved Nuclear triad and it will still take few more years for India to have a desirable underwater nuclear force which can provide year-long second strike capabilities but with Tactical nuclear weapons being developed and Pakistan also planning to use those tactical nukes on its sub-sonic cruise missiles to be fired from underwater submarines, India’s NFU policy will mean Pakistan not only get the first punch but also will have enough arsenal at sea which it can unleash a second wave at second-tier cities or at the Indian military command which can literally neutralize India’s first strike capabilities considerably.
India’s heavy investment in the Anti-ballistic missile defense system suggests that India is contemplating to tweak its NFU policy due to changing scenarios in the region but also to strengthen India’s cold Start policy which has been in work now for many years now and will see smaller and fitter army which will trained to operate under nuclear clouds but also reduce Pakistan’s use of nuclear weapons which could only be possible if India severally reduces Pakistan militaries which can be tackled with.
India very well knows that Pakistan’s Nuclear triad will be based on Tactical nukes armed on a long-range sub-sonic missile which are not impossible to intercept but it also needs Anti-ballistic missile defense system which can intercept medium and long-range ballistic missiles which might survive India’s first strikes.
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